THE INFLUENCE OF MICRO ECONOMIC FACTORS AND MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS TOWARD THE LOAN DISTRIBUTION

Abstract

This study examined and analyzed the micro economic factors and macro-economic factors that affecting the loan distribution. The micro economic factors are Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), and Non-Performing Loan (NPL). The macroeconomic factors are Interest Rate and Exchange Rate. This study uses purposive sampling by choosing the samples that have quarterly financial report from Q1 2012 – Q2 2015, categorize in Bank Category 3, and have LDR more than 90% as the sample of bank that have expansive loan business strategy. This study used multiple regression model with 5% of significance level. The results of this study showed that interest rate has negative and significant effect toward loan distribution. Meanwhile, loan to deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, and nonperforming loan has negative and non-significant effect toward loan distribution. Besides that, exchange rate has positive and non-significant effect toward loan distribution. Simultaneously, loan to deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loan, interest rate, and exchange rate has significant impact toward loan distribution with 23.4% R2. Besides, analyzing the influence of LDR, CAR, NPL, interest rate, and exchange rate toward loan distribution, the author also explained about the going concern factor from each variable that related to the Bank Category 3 current situation. The author compared the current situation with the regulation that issued by Bank Indonesia as central bank in Indonesia. The result shows that LDR, CAR, NPL, and exchange rate has low risk and expected to have a good going concern. On the other hand the interest rate has moderate risk, because the uncertainty of global economic situation, the increasing Fed Rate issue, and the significant influence of interest rate toward loan distribution that may lead to the credit default issue.