THE DETERMINANT OF INDONESIA PALM OIL EXPORT PERFORMANCE FROM EU PALM OIL IMPORT ACTIVITY, PALM OIL PRICE AND INDONESIA PALM OIL PRODUCTION

Abstract

This research examined the performance of palm oil export in Indonesia during the last 10 years. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of Indonesia palm oil export indicators which are production, oil price and European palm oil import. This research will use the whole palm oil production in Indonesia, the monthly world oil prices, the monthly world palm oil import from Europe and the monthly export value of Indonesia palm oil export performance. This research observed quantitative model using Multiple Regression Model, Classical Assumption Test and Hypotheses Testing through cross-sectional data collection method from secondary data during the period of 2011-2020. The data used in this research obtained from Indonesia Palm Oil Statistics, IndexMundi and Trademap. The result shows that production and European palm oil import have no significant effect towards Indonesia palm oil export performance, while oil price has significant positive effect on Indonesia palm oil export performance. It was also shows 39.5% contributions from production, oil price and European palm oil import simultaneously effect on Indonesia palm oil export performance and the rest 60.5% is affected by other factors outside of this study. Oil price has the highest t value which means the most relevant variable effecting Indonesia palm oil export performance. It concludes that the higher the growth in CPO prices, the higher the inflation and the greater the acknowledgment rate of exchange, which in turn will increase Indonesia palm oil export performance.