CORRELATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN NATIONAL INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE TOWARD VIETNAM'S EXPORT VALUE FROM 2009 TO JUNE 2011

Abstract

This research is aimed to determine whether the national inflation and foreign exchange rate have significant correlation to Vietnam’s export value from 2009 to June 2011. The author found that the Vietnam’s export value was increasing during the period of 2009 and 2011 although the inflation rate and exchange rate was increasing after the global recession. The affecting variables have been chosen because those are common factors influence in the process of International Business that can be implemented from the Macroeconomics theory. This research used secondary data as its samples to gather all the necessary result of this analysis. There are 30 data distributed in the time series from 2009 to June 2011 computed monthly. Samples are acquired from the reliable sources of Vietnamese Government websites. In order to have a valid research, the author used quantitative research methodology which was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis method with SPSS as the calculation software. According to the findings, the result of F – test explains that simultaneously all the independent variables do affect the dependent variable with the significant value of 0.00. In other words, the national inflation rate and foreign exchange rate have significant impact to Vietnam export value in the period 2009 - 2011. The result of t – test proves that inflation rate partially has no significant correlation with the export value while exchange rate has very significant correlation with the export value. The coefficient of determination R2 value of the regression model is 0.686 means 68.6% of the variation in Export Value as dependent variable is explained by the variation of independent variables Foreign Exchange Rate and National Inflation Rate, whereas the other 31.4% is explained by other factors. From this research, the researcher expects the Vietnam’s government will understand that exchange rate is the main factor affects the export value of the country and inflation rate is the indirect factor determine the fluctuation of export value. This research also recommended the governors to pay more attention on many factors other than the fluctuation of exchange rate so that they can take preventive actions to keep the export value increasing for a better economic development.