I ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S OUTBOUND TOURIST DEMAND MODEL

Abstract

From 2012 to 2016, China’s outbound tourism accounted for the largest position in terms of outbound tourism consumption. Both the number of outbound tourists and the total outbound consumption exceeded the number of developed countries. In spite of this, compared with inbound tourism and domestic tourism’s literature, the research of outbound tourism is relatively small and focuses on policy research. There are relatively few quantitative studies on the relationship between China's outbound tourism and macroeconomic variables. And the growth rate of outbound tourism trips in China has been decreasing year by year. Therefore, this research selected second-hand data of 19 representative countries from 2006 to 2015, and use the panel data model to analyzed the outbound tourism demand of China. To research the macroeconomic factors (resident income, travel prices, exchange rate, and bilateral trade in goods) in China's outbound tourism market had an impact on China's outbound tourism trips and its positive and negative impacts. The results show that resident income had a negative influence on China's outbound tourist trips. Travel prices had a positive influence towards China's outbound tourist trips but not significance. Currency rates had a significant positively affect towards China's outbound tourist trips. Bilateral trade volume had a positive influence towards China's outbound tourist trips. simultaneously Chinese resident income, tourism prices, exchange rates and bilateral trade volume had significant positively towards China's outbound tourist trips. This research can help the Chinese government better understand China’s outbound travel situation and make corresponding adjustments.