THE ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF GDP, LIR AND M M2 TOWARDS NON PERFORMING LOANS RATIOS (CASE STUDY IN AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA IN 2009 - 2013)

Abstract

Non performing loans is the negative result of commercial bank credit risk. As one of the four big state owned commercial bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has the highest non performing loans among them. Therefore, analyzing the influenci ng factors of non performing loans ratio of Agricultural Bank of China has a theoretical and practical significance. In this research, the author combining the current situation of Agricultural Bank's non performing loans and drawing lessons from domestic and foreign relevant results, selecting three indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Lending Interest Rate (LIR) and Money Supply (M2) from 2009 2013 each quarter, through the quantitative method and statistical descriptive method to analyze the influence of different factors. The analysis results show that GDP, LIR and M2 have significant simultaneous influence to NPLs, and particularly LIR has significant influence to NPL at ABC. T he variables GDP and M2 have negative impact on NPLs, and LIR has positive impact on NPLs. At the end of research, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the author put forward some suggestions towards control and preventing the bad loans, in order to reduce the non performing loan ratio of Agricultural Bank of China.