DEMAND ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN CRUDE OIL EXPORT VOLUME TO CHINA MARKET (PERIODE 2009-2011)

Abstract

The researcher studies about demand analysis of crude oil export volume to China market (period 2009-2011). This research aims to studying the significant of each factor that can shift the crude oil demand curve which are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), China Exchange Rate toward USD, Substitute Product (coal), Substitute Product (natural gas). The factor is chosen according to demand theory. The researcher realizes the problem when the researcher looks at the decreasing of crude oil volume export to China. The decreasing start from 2009 to 2011, even the export of Indonesia of crude oil did not decreasing but it only happen in export of Indonesia to China with a huge change over a year and keep decreasing. From the data that researcher find in BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik), the researcher start to do researcher to find out the independent variable that influence significant the decreasing of crude oil export volume to China. For processing the data that got from BPS, Trading Economis, and X-rate. The researcher used SPSS (Statistic Product and Service Solution) version 16 with several tests in it: classic assumption test, multiple regression analysis, F test, T test, and coefficient analysis test. F-Test in this research shows that independent variables simultaneously give influence to dependent variable with significance level 0.00. For T-test, shows that GDP and ER are influence to export volume of crude oil. The T value of the test shows that the most dominant factor is the variable of GDP. The coefficient determinant of this research shows that this research can explain the export volume is 48.8%.