THE ANALYSIS OF OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE IN ASEAN COUNTRIES AFTER CRISIS (2008-2012 & 2013-2017)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the official exchange rate in ASEAN countries after crisis. This study focuses to analyze the impact of macroeconomics indicators toward the official exchange rate during 2008-2012 & 2013-2017. The dependent variable is the Official Exchange Rate of ASEAN Countries, and the independent variables are six (6) macroeconomics indicators which are; GDP Growth, Real Interest Rate, Population Growth, Urban Population Percentage, Growth Percentage of Exports and Imports. The regression model is conducted as one tail and analyzing the impact of independent variables toward dependent variable. After that the researcher does an extended research by regress only one independent variable which is Urban Population Percentage toward the dependent variable. This study is using Generalized Least Square data panel as the estimation method. The statistic tool that is used in this study is STATA M-64. The findings shows that there is shifting in relationship of Real Interest Rate towards Official Exchange Rate as well as from Population Growth towards Official Exchange Rate from the first event to the second event. In addition, this study finds that urban population has negative and significant impact toward official exchange rate in both events. This finding shows that urban population contribute negative significantly toward the official exchange rate in ASEAN countries. Therefore, the future research should concentrate to propose this potential problem in the future, especially for Indonesia – since in 2035, it has been predicted that 66.6% Indonesian population prefer to live in urban area.