Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to analyze the official exchange rate in ASEAN
countries after crisis. This study focuses to analyze the impact of macroeconomics
indicators toward the official exchange rate during 2008-2012 & 2013-2017. The
dependent variable is the Official Exchange Rate of ASEAN Countries, and the
independent variables are six (6) macroeconomics indicators which are; GDP
Growth, Real Interest Rate, Population Growth, Urban Population Percentage,
Growth Percentage of Exports and Imports. The regression model is conducted as
one tail and analyzing the impact of independent variables toward dependent
variable. After that the researcher does an extended research by regress only one
independent variable which is Urban Population Percentage toward the dependent
variable. This study is using Generalized Least Square data panel as the estimation
method. The statistic tool that is used in this study is STATA M-64. The findings
shows that there is shifting in relationship of Real Interest Rate towards Official
Exchange Rate as well as from Population Growth towards Official Exchange
Rate from the first event to the second event. In addition, this study finds that
urban population has negative and significant impact toward official exchange
rate in both events. This finding shows that urban population contribute negative
significantly toward the official exchange rate in ASEAN countries. Therefore,
the future research should concentrate to propose this potential problem in the
future, especially for Indonesia – since in 2035, it has been predicted that 66.6%
Indonesian population prefer to live in urban area.
