TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON DETERMINING PROFITABILITY AND DECISION-MAKING OF STOCK TREND DURING COVID-19 (2018-2021): BANKING SECTOR LISTED IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Abstract

This thesis focuses on the Technical Analysis of Stock Trends for Determining Profitability and Decision-Making during COVID-19 (2018-2021): Banking Sector Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Technical analysis is used by financial analysts to make predictions and spot trends in market data. From the result of technical analysis, it will give suggestions about the stock trend, whether to buy, hold, or sell the stock. The biggest income for commercial banks comes from the remuneration for providing credit to the public, which indirectly affects the stock price of the bank. During COVID-19, banks may have a significant impact on their stock. The stock trend itself may also influence the profitability and decision-making of traders who trade in commercial bank stocks. This research will further explain how technical analysis can determine the profitability and decision-making of stock trends in the banking sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as the variety. The data will be taken from the closing price of commercial banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2021 using multiple linear regression methods for the time series data using statistical software which is SPSS. The researcher found that only ROC, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and EMA could earn a statistically significant result. It means that only those indicators can forecast good profitability in the future. The ROC are the most significant technical indicators that can generate profit in most of the banks listed in IDX in the period of 2018—2021 before and after Covid-19. The researcher also found that most of the banking sector produced good profitability in the last 3 years while the pandemic hit Indonesia, but that some of them were in a loss condition. The researcher recommends that when analyzing a future stock price to earn profitability, try to use another technical indicator and profitability measures to get a satisfactory result.