Abstract:
This thesis focuses on the Technical Analysis of Stock Trends for Determining
Profitability and Decision-Making during COVID-19 (2018-2021): Banking
Sector Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Technical analysis is used by
financial analysts to make predictions and spot trends in market data. From the
result of technical analysis, it will give suggestions about the stock trend, whether
to buy, hold, or sell the stock. The biggest income for commercial banks comes
from the remuneration for providing credit to the public, which indirectly affects
the stock price of the bank. During COVID-19, banks may have a significant
impact on their stock. The stock trend itself may also influence the profitability
and decision-making of traders who trade in commercial bank stocks. This
research will further explain how technical analysis can determine the profitability
and decision-making of stock trends in the banking sector listed on the Indonesia
Stock Exchange as the variety. The data will be taken from the closing price of
commercial banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 1 January 2018 to
31 December 2021 using multiple linear regression methods for the time series
data using statistical software which is SPSS. The researcher found that only
ROC, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and EMA could earn a statistically significant result.
It means that only those indicators can forecast good profitability in the future.
The ROC are the most significant technical indicators that can generate profit in
most of the banks listed in IDX in the period of 2018—2021 before and after
Covid-19. The researcher also found that most of the banking sector produced good profitability in the last 3 years while the pandemic hit Indonesia, but that
some of them were in a loss condition. The researcher recommends that when
analyzing a future stock price to earn profitability, try to use another technical
indicator and profitability measures to get a satisfactory result.
