COMPARISON OF FORECASTING METHODS AND DETERMINING MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULES FOR DRILL AND HSS PRODUCTS AT PT. GI

Abstract

PT G.I. is a leading manufacturer of precision cutting tools and related instruments for the engineering and industrial industries. Some of these items are drill and HSS. Based on observations of historical supply, sales and inventory data, it was concluded that PT G.I. experiencing problems with overstocked data, where the level of sales is lower than production. In December 2022 to May 2023, there was excess stock in inventory, so PT GI remained consistent in supplying HSS and Drill goods even though sales was low. It was recorded that in April 2023 PT G.I estimated that it would sell a total of 185 units but only sold 103 drill units, and conversely PT G.I estimated that it would sell 82 HSS but in reality, in May 2023 it only sold 50 units of HSS tools. The current forecasting method, namely the Simple Moving Average, influences the number of incoming goods, resulting in too much inventory being stockpiled. Items that are buried can cause their selling value to decrease, one of the factors being rusty items. This research aims to find appropriate forecasting methods for PT G.I., such as Double Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Des Brown, to prevent excess stock from occurring in the next period. This research suggests that the Double Moving Average is a method that has been tested and is the best forecasting methods because it produces the lowest forecasting error value compared to the other two methods that have been tested. This research also develops a master production plan to reduce the impact of the company's increasing inventory so that production time remains neat and structured.