Abstract:
PT G.I. is a leading manufacturer of precision cutting tools and related instruments
for the engineering and industrial industries. Some of these items are drill and HSS.
Based on observations of historical supply, sales and inventory data, it was
concluded that PT G.I. experiencing problems with overstocked data, where the
level of sales is lower than production. In December 2022 to May 2023, there was
excess stock in inventory, so PT GI remained consistent in supplying HSS and Drill
goods even though sales was low. It was recorded that in April 2023 PT G.I
estimated that it would sell a total of 185 units but only sold 103 drill units, and
conversely PT G.I estimated that it would sell 82 HSS but in reality, in May 2023
it only sold 50 units of HSS tools. The current forecasting method, namely the
Simple Moving Average, influences the number of incoming goods, resulting in too
much inventory being stockpiled. Items that are buried can cause their selling value
to decrease, one of the factors being rusty items. This research aims to find
appropriate forecasting methods for PT G.I., such as Double Moving Average,
Weighted Moving Average, and Des Brown, to prevent excess stock from occurring
in the next period. This research suggests that the Double Moving Average is a
method that has been tested and is the best forecasting methods because it produces
the lowest forecasting error value compared to the other two methods that have been
tested. This research also develops a master production plan to reduce the impact
of the company's increasing inventory so that production time remains neat and
structured.
