INDONESIA’S ADMITTANCE TO BRICS AND THE SHIFT OF TRADE WITH THE U.S., CHINA, AND ASEAN

Abstract

BRICS has emerged as a prominent intergovernmental organization representing the Global South and providing a counterbalance to Western-dominated institutions. Indonesia’s potential accession has attracted widespread attention, raising questions about the implications for its trade and foreign policy. This study investigates how Indonesia’s accession into BRICS may reshape its bilateral trade relations with China, the U.S., and ASEAN within the context of shifting geopolitical dynamics. By employing qualitative methods, specifically literature review and in-depth interviews with embassy officials in Jakarta, the research focuses on how Indonesia’s foreign policy shift affects the country’s trade relations under the administrations of Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. The analysis highlights three central findings. First, Indonesia’s entry into BRICS is expected to reinforce trade cooperation with other BRICS members, positioning the country as a more active player in the Global South economic engagement. Second, this shift risks straining Indonesia’s relations with the U.S., which has adopted an increasingly defensive stance toward initiatives perceived as undermining its global dominance. Third, while Indonesia’s engagement with ASEAN is likely to remain stable, the organization’s long-standing “centrality” may face challenges as Indonesia reorients part of its foreign policy agenda. Overall, the study underscores Indonesia’s delicate balancing act between strengthening new partnerships and managing established alliances.