Abstract:
The debate between whether stock investing in cigarette manufacturing companies
is going to be a profitable investment in the future or not has been going endless.
PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk., PT. Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk., PT.
Gudang Garam Tbk. has depreciates up to 25% of its share price in 2019 while
PT. Bentoel International Investama Tbk. was quite stable in term of its share
price but this company was generating consecutive losses instead of profit which
shattered the belief that cigarette manufacturing companies is a safe investment.
This research aims to answer that discussion by conducting a fundamental
analysis on macroeconomic factors and companies’ situation by seeing the
financial ratios. The regression analysis is conducted based on the data from the
fundamental analysis to explore the statistically significant variables that affect
the share price of each company. The most contributing factor in Wismilak
regression model is the exchange rate followed by the current ratio followed by
the gross domestic product of tobacco and the least contributing factor in
Wismilak regression model is the tobacco price. The most contributing factor in
Sampoerna regression model is the tax rate followed by the return on asset ratio
and the least contributing factor in Sampoerna regression model is the current
ratio. The most contributing factor in Gudang Garam regression model is the
interest rate followed by the tobacco price. The most contributing factor in
Bentoel regression model is the exchange rate followed by the tobacco tax rate
followed by the Repo rate and the least contributing factor in the Bentoel final
regression model is the gross domestic product of tobacco. From the fundamental
and regression analysis this research concludes that it is best to invest in PT.
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk. and PT. Gudang Garam Tbk. while it is best
not to invest in PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. and to wait for an investment in
PT. Bentoel International Investama Tbk.
