Abstract:
Varicella is a disease caused by the varicellazooster
virus. This disease is common in children
under 10 years of age and is not a fatal condition. However, some cases of varicella in adults are more
dangerous because they can cause pneumonia. Here, discussion about analysis of varicella epidemic model
is presented. This model is expressed in the form of 6th order differential equation with state variables
as follows susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantine, recovered, and vaccination. Apart vaccination and
isolation intervention, this model also consider disinfectant spray an¡d ventilation. Our analysis shows that
varicella dynamic behavior depends on the basic reproduction number (R0). The model has two equilibria,
namely, free disease and endemic equilibria. By using the Lyapunov function, we demonstrate that when
R0≤1, diseasefree
is globally asymptotically stable, and when R0 > 1 diseasefree
becomes unstable
while endemic is globally asymptotically stable. This results indicate more effective each intervention, the
better the control of varicella.
