APPLICATION OF FORECASTING (A STUDY CASE)

Abstract

The demand of mold in B plant is having increment about 38% in 2012. The company does not apply statically method to forecast the mold demand otherwise uses judgmental method to determine the forecast. The mold designs mostly have different design, regarding of that the order system is make-to-order system. Therefore B plant cannot prepare the finish good inventory to avoid the unpredictable demand. The increasing demand which is not followed by the production capacity becomes a problem. One of economical calculation before enlarges the capacity by determining the appropriate forecasting demand. This thesis will focus on determining the trend of mold order and finding the appropriate forecasting method for the next order. In this research, forecasting the mold uses time series method with constant process. The history data uses mold production data during January-December 2012. The time series methods in this case use MSE, MAD and MAPE. The error values are 119.24, 9.80 and 32.20 respectively. Based on the calculation, the next six months demand is 34 molds should be produced by B plant constantly. By obtaining the next forecasting order, company will be able to plan their production capacity and press the tardiness of production. Nevertheless, consideration on some other factor will make the system more reliable to be used.