THE IMPACT OF FORECASTING METHOD TO BULLWHIP EFFECT REDUCTION IN PT.CSCEC

Abstract

Bullwhip effect is one important problem in one supply chain, the objective of this research is by using different kinds of forecast method, and analysis the result, to find one way to reduce the bullwhip effect in one supply chain, finally help the company to reduce the cost, improve work efficiency and reduce inventory pressure. In this research, by using moving average method, exponential smoothing method, and Holt’s method to do forecast about the order quantity from company to the supplier. Different forecasting methods accuracy is checked and accurate forecasting method is selected for the supply chain. Finally compared the forecast result with the actually customer demand, and quantify bullwhip effect. Result shows that after using forecast method, the bullwhip effect was be reduced and the demand fluctuations are controlled within a suitable range. In the final of the research give suggestion to4 the company that need to consider using forecast method and do more active in demand information sharing in the supply chain to reduce the bullwhip effect.